Cost and Volume Worries Don't Impact Venture's Long-Term Outlook

Venture Global does not lack ambition. Its development plan envisions a vertically integrated liquified natural gas, or LNG, producer that controls substantial global market share. Core to this plan is Venture maximizing the sale of LNG volumes going toward the spot market, rather than selling under long-term agreements. We largely agree with this strategy as Venture has invested heavily in building out facilities at the top of the cycle. To make adequate returns, it must maximize sales on short-term agreements that produce $1-$3/mmbtu more at midcycle than under long-term agreements. Fundamentally, this structure also produces extremely volatile performance, with operating margins swinging from 62% in 2023, to an expected low of 15% in 2026. Venture’s decision to sell volumes to the spot market for more than three years, while financially beneficial and a contractual stretch, appears to have caused immense reputational damage with its small pool of substantial LNG buyers.