Nexi Earnings: Results and Guidance Within Expectations; Shares Undervalued

We maintain our EUR 10.40 per-share fair value estimate and narrow moat for Nexi after the Italian payments provider released 2024 results in line with our expectations. Net revenue grew 5.1% to EUR 3.5 billion, driven by 6.3% growth in merchant solutions. The segment continues to benefit from higher growth from international payment schemes (volumes were up 9.4% versus a total that was up 3.2%), which came at a higher margin to Nexi. Issuing solutions showed a similar dynamic with international schemes weighing in Nexi’s favor, lifting revenue in the segment by 4.2% in 2024. Revenue growth outpaced costs (up 2.9%), which saw efficiency measures not completely offset volume and inflationary pressure, resulting in underlying EBITDA growing 7.1%. For 2025, Nexi has proposed a EUR 0.25 per-share dividend, which corresponds to a EUR 300 million distribution. The payment provider also plans a share buyback program worth around EUR 300 million this year. Given Nexi’s depressed valuation, this is good use of excess capital in our view.