Taylor Wimpey Earnings: Earnings Recovery Liekly Modest in 2025 but Shares Remain Compelling

No-moat Taylor Wimpey’s performance in 2024 aligned with our expectations, with the full-year delivery of 10,593 home completions and EBIT of GBP 416 million aligning with our forecasts. Importantly, recent sales activity has remained resilient to the modest tightening in financial conditions observed since the release of the UK budget in late 2024. Indeed, the year-to-date weekly private sales rate has held steady at 0.75 homes per active sales outlet, relative to the second half of 2024. As a result, Taylor Wimpey expects to deliver modest growth in completions in 2025, guiding to a range of 10,400-10,800 homes (excluding joint ventures)—a 1.5% year-on-year increase in sales volumes at the midpoint of guidance.