Bentley Systems Earnings: Decent Fourth Quarter but a Soft 2026 Outlook as China Headwinds Persist

We maintain our $45 fair value estimate for narrow-moat Bentley Systems after the firm reported mixed fourth-quarter results, with revenue matching our estimates but profitability falling a bit short. China continues to be a headwind, as the country’s weak macroeconomic environment, as well as a shift in preference by state-owned enterprises to adopt domestic alternatives, affected demand. The revenue outlook for 2026 was softer than what we expected, with management being conservative on China, which led us to revise down our near-term growth forecasts. This adjustment was offset by the time value of money, leading to our steady fair value. We reiterate our long-term thesis as Bentley’s healthy retention rates, solid subscription-based revenue, and expectations of stable infrastructure demand alongside artificial intelligence adoption continue to drive growth. The stock price was up marginally on the news, and we view the shares as fairly valued.