Coupang: Raised Fair Value Estimate by 26%; Shares Undervalued; Strong Growth Not Fully Priced In

Coupang has taken market share from other retail companies in South Korea in the past few years—its share of retail value excluding sales tax ranked number one, increasing to 13.3% in 2023 from 6.8% in 2020, per Euromonitor, thanks to its fast delivery service, attractive product prices and wide assortment of goods. Coupang provides dawn (arrives before 7 a.m. if ordering before midnight), same-day (receive by 6 p.m. for orders before 10 a.m.) and next-day deliveries, with an easy returns process (leave the item outside the door for pickup.) Euromonitor projects South Korea’s e-commerce market to grow at a 4% compound annual growth rate during 2023-28, but we expect a faster 5% for the market and 10% for Coupang during the same period. The collapse of small e-commerce peers WeMakePrice and Tmon will drive more customers to other larger platforms such as Coupang. Increasing categories and assortment should be able to boost spending per customer.