Deutsche Telekom Earnings: Momentum in US and Germany Indicates Strong 2025; Raise Our FVE to EUR 31

Narrow-moat Deutsche Telekom delivered a strong 2024. Full-year revenue reached EUR 115.8 billion, up 3.4%, and adjusted EBITDA after leases rose to EUR 43 billion or 6.2%. Investors were somewhat disappointed by Deutsche Telekom’s adjusted EBITDAaL guidance though as management expects EUR 44.9 billion in 2025 compared with company-compiled consensus of EUR 46 billion. We believe it’s likely Deutsche Telekom will end up above EUR 44.9 billion as management normally guides conservatively and gradually raises its outlook over the year. We model EUR 45.1 billion in adjusted EBITDAaL in 2025, growing to EUR 47.6 billion in 2026. We raise our fair value estimate to EUR 31 from EUR 28 as we roll our model and update our forecasts. Shares remain slightly overvalued as of Feb. 26.