BE Semiconductor Earnings: Q1 2025 Guidance Disappoints; Long-Term Outlook Remains Strong and Intact

BE Semiconductor's fourth-quarter revenue of EUR 153.4 million was at the midpoint of guidance, a 4% year-on-year decline. The outlook for next quarter disappointed investors, as Besi expects a 5% quarter-on-quarter sales decline, compared with consensus expectations of 10% growth, or EUR 168 million. The full 2025 outlook remains unknown, but management signaled "cautious optimism" due to strong performance in artificial intelligence-related applications and an expected recovery of mainstream applications in second-half 2025. We model EUR 702 million in 2025 revenue, a 12% increase. We slightly raise our fair value estimate to EUR 125 per share after updating our forecasts.