Naturgy Earnings: Dividend Hiked, Investments Trimmed, 2027 Targets in Line With Expectations

We confirm our EUR 25.70 fair value estimate after no-moat Naturgy released 2024 results in line with our expectations. Its 2025-27 business plan includes a dividend step-up, investment reduction, and a tender offer to its reference shareholders (those with the most voting power) to increase the free float to return to MSCI indexes. The firm will pay a 2024 dividend of EUR 1.60, above the EUR 1.40 paid on 2023 results and the floor of the same amount. It intends to increase it by 6% annually, pointing to a 2027 dividend of EUR 1.90. Shares appear fairly valued after the 5% increase at the time of writing, but the dividend yield of 5.9% is attractive.