Fluor Earnings: Shares Plunge on Soft 2025 Guidance, but We See a Buying Opportunity

No-moat Fluor’s shares plunged by over 10% in intraday trading on Feb. 18 after the firm’s fourth-quarter adjusted EPS of $0.48 missed the FactSet consensus estimate by $0.30. Management’s full-year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.25 to $2.75 also came in below the $2.91 consensus estimate. Despite the soft 2025 outlook, we are raising our fair value estimate for Fluor to $54 per share from $44.50, driven by our more optimistic midcycle operating margin expectations as well as a higher value of Fluor’s equity stake in NuScale. With the stock trading roughly 28% below our updated fair value estimate, we see this as a buying opportunity for patient investors who can stomach near-term volatility.