With Our Projections for Lower Rates, Stifel's Prospects Will Hang on Asset-Driven Businesses

We expect Stifel's business to be increasingly driven by its asset management segment, with proportionally slower forecast growth from investment banking, institutional commissions, net interest income, and client commission (the latter is driven by a pivot toward asset-based rather than commission-based monetization models industrywide). We take a generally positive view of the firm's strategy, although acquisitions in its institutional group seem somewhat value dilutive, as this remains one of its most secularly pressured segments and is definitionally a volatile business.