Ubisoft Earnings: 2026 Release Slate Concerns Overshadow Positivity Around Assassin’s Creed

Narrow-moat Ubisoft’s third-quarter sales update was in line with the guidance provided in early January. The firm remains on shaky footing and has become increasingly reliant on a strong release of Assassin’s Creed: Shadows. While preorder numbers and recent playtesting have been positive, we are slightly less confident that the rest of the small fiscal 2026 release slate will be able to build on the success of AC: Shadows and meet our forecast net bookings. After adjusting our model for slower growth in fiscal 2026, we are lowering our fair value to EUR 16 from EUR 19.