Heineken Earnings: Strong Close to 2024; Profitability Upside Restores Investor Confidence

We maintain our EUR 100 fair value estimate for narrow-moat Heineken after the firm reported full-year 2024 results in line with our above-consensus expectations. We are impressed with the firm delivering organic beer volume growth as well as surpassing its 2024 profitability guidance over the challenging year. We continue to hold our view that the firm is well positioned to capitalize on long-term secular drivers in the brewing industry, including premiumization at scale, portfolio proliferation, and nonalcoholic beverages. Management expects positive momentum to continue in 2025, guiding to 4%-8% organic operating profit growth. With the earnings beat and encouraging outlook, shares jumped 13% following the announcement, and we continue to view the stock as undervalued.