Deutsche Boerse Earnings: Lower Net Interest Income Will Weigh on Strong Organic Growth

Deutsche Boerse reported full-year EBITDA of EUR 3.4 billion, slightly ahead of our EUR 3.3 billion estimate. Organic revenue growth of 8% and operating cost inflation of 3% lifted EBITDA by 14%, which was expectedly strong for 2024. The exchange group continues to benefit from structural growth drivers supporting demand for its products and services, which should culminate in a 3% top-line growth rate after absorbing a lower contribution from the banking business in 2025. Higher interest rates have significantly contributed to Deutsche Boerse’s operating performance since 2022. However, over the next two years, results will face weaker contributions from the treasury business as rates continue to come down. This will offset organic growth in the mid- to high single digits. We maintain our wide economic moat rating and reiterate our EUR 220 fair value estimate.