Thomson Reuters Earnings: Steady Quarter and Healthy Outlook

Thomson Reuters' subscription-heavy business was mostly steady. Organic recurring revenue was up 8%, a similar clip as the third quarter. Transaction revenue, which was less than 10% of total revenue, declined 4% but that was mostly expected due to elevated Reuters News license revenue in the year-ago period. Thomson Reuters’ 2025 outlook of 7.0%-7.5% organic revenue growth was solid, in our view. In addition, for 2026, Thomson Reuters’ financial framework calls for 7.5%-8.0% organic growth, which is an improvement from 6.5%-8.0% that it laid out at its March 2024 investor day. Overall, we will maintain our $140 fair value estimate and narrow moat rating on Thomson Reuters. While we acknowledge the firm has very limited macroeconomic exposure and that underpins our Morningstar Uncertainty Rating of Low, we view shares as a bit pricey at current levels.