Oriental Land Earnings: On Track to Meet Guidance With a Stronger March Quarter Attendance Outlook

We retain our fair value estimate of JPY 4,450 per share for Oriental Land, the operator of Tokyo Disney Resort, as we believe the company is on track to meet its fiscal 2024 (ending March 2025) guidance despite weaker December-quarter attendance, and our midterm outlook remains unchanged. Over the past six months, the stock price has declined by about 14%, likely due to concerns that continuous ticket price hikes and increases in paywalls for attractions may drive away guests. Nonetheless, we think shares are undervalued as we believe the theme park’s unique position as the only Disney theme park in Japan protects its strong pricing power. Plus, management has a good track record of increasing the park’s revenue and profits through effective strategies and flexible execution. We believe plans for upkeeping park attendance and future growth drivers, to be announced at the April results meeting, will be key for the company to restore investor confidence.