United Rentals Earnings: Strong Top-Line Growth, but Profitability Faces Headwinds

United Rentals posted solid fourth-quarter results, beating LSEG revenue consensus, but adjusted diluted earnings per share of $11.59 missed the $11.65 consensus. Total revenue in the fourth quarter increased 9.8% year over year to $4.1 billion, while adjusted EPS rose 2.9% as used equipment prices continue to normalize. We are leaving our fair value estimate unchanged but will review all modeling assumptions once we roll our model forward for the 10-K and incorporate the pending H&E acquisition announced Jan. 14. That all-cash deal remains on track to close in the first quarter. Management introduced its 2025 outlook, which is in line with our forecast for the year, calling for revenue of $15.6 billion–$16.1 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $7.2 billion–$7.45 billion. This guidance does not include the impact of the H&E acquisition, and for adjusted EBITDA at its midpoint is an implied 50-basis-point drop versus 2024's 46.7%.