Telia Earnings: Medium-Term Outlook Reliant on Outcome of Cost-Cutting Program

Narrow-moat Telia reported slightly weaker than expected fourth-quarter 2024 results, with the key Nordic markets of Sweden, Finland, and Norway growing like-for-like service revenue by 0.5%, negative 0.3%, and negative 0.6%, respectively. Strong results in the Baltic region left group-level service revenue growth at 1.5% for the period. Improved profitability in TV and media, as well as in Finland contributed to 5.8% adjusted EBITDA growth. Management made no changes to their 2025 outlook for service revenue growth of around 2% and adjusted EBITDA growth of at least 5%. We plan to incorporate these results into our model, but don't expect to change our SEK 29 fair value estimate.