ASML Earnings: Strong Orders and Conservative Outlook; Intel and Samsung Key to Watch

Wide-moat ASML exceeded all expectations in its fourth-quarter results with shares surging 11% intraday. New orders came in strongly at EUR 7.1 billion—in a context where EUR 4 billion would have been considered a success. Despite this strength, management remained cautious and maintained its EUR 30 billion-EUR 35 billion revenue guidance for 2025. Although maintaining guidance can look conservative at first glance, it’s based on the weakness shown by Intel and Samsung, which have likely pushed some orders to 2026 as they still have challenges in ramping up production of leading-edge nodes. We've raised our 2025 revenue estimate to EUR 34.2 billion from EUR 32.5 billion, but maintain our EUR 850 fair value estimate as our long-term forecasts remain largely unchanged. Shares still offer 20% upside.