Manhattan Associates Earnings: Robust Software Performance Flattened by Lowered Services Outlook

We are lowering our fair value estimate to $230 per share, from $240 previously, for wide-moat Manhattan Associates after the firm reported good fourth-quarter results but guided 2025 down based largely on weakening demand for implementation services and worsening currency headwinds. We thought the stock had been overvalued and believe our expectations were shy of consensus over the medium term. While the stock is down markedly after hours, adjustments to our model were less severe and mainly relate to 2025 as we thought expectations were running ahead of reality in recent months. We now view shares as fairly valued. We do not think results indicate any change in the competitive environment and we continue to view Manhattan as the leader in supply chain software.