Ebos: Shares Overvalued With Competition Intensifying

We maintain our fair value estimate of AUD 28.50 per share (NZD 31.50 at current exchange rates) and our earnings estimates for narrow-moat Ebos. Shares in Ebos have traded sideways since reporting in August 2024. In October 2024, the company reiterated fiscal 2025 guidance of underlying EBITDA between AUD 575 and AUD 600 million after underlying EBITDA grew 7% for the first three months of fiscal 2025. Our fiscal 2025 underlying EBITDA forecast of AUD 583 million, on an AASB 16 basis, is unchanged and compares with fiscal 2024 underlying EBITDA of AUD 624 million. Shares remain overvalued, with earnings set to rebase lower following its Chemist Warehouse contract ceasing at fiscal 2024 year-end.