Aviva: Firm a Pretty Good Natural Fit for Its Smaller Rival Direct Line

With no-moat Aviva's bid for Direct Line, we take a closer look at Aviva's personal lines. That's relevant because resistance to a takeover is increasingly looking like a bet that the latter firm's CEO, Adam Winslow, can deliver a long-term turnaround. Investors should worry not just about whether the business can achieve its targets, but where that would leave it in the long term. Our fair value estimate is GBX 570 per share; shares are undervalued at current levels.