MSCI Earnings: Index Business Steady and Solid While Nonindex Indicators Underwhelm

MSCI reported an OK finish to 2024. Index subscription and ETF asset-based fees were roughly in line with our expectations, but analytics and ESG subscription revenue was a bit lower than we modeled. Overall, MSCI revenue and adjusted EBITDA of $744 million and $452 million, respectively, in the quarter compared favorably with FactSet consensus estimates of $745 million and $447 million. We attribute the negative market reaction today to the stock taking a breather after running up the past few weeks, as well as worries about a mediocre sales environment weighing on net new-subscription sales. As we incorporate these results, we expect to maintain our $530 per share fair value estimate and wide moat rating.