Endesa SA

ELE: XMAD (ESP)
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Endesa: Grid Investments Step-Up Subject to Upbeat Regulatory Assumptions; Shares Fairly Valued

We confirm our EUR 20 fair value estimate after no-moat Endesa released 2025-27 financial targets including a material increase in grid investments conditional on upbeat regulatory assumptions. The firm will pay a 2024 dividend of EUR 1.2, 9% above the EUR 1.10 previous guidance and implying a 6.1% yield, below parent firm Enel's 6.9%. The cash flow-neutrality requirement to pay a 70% payout-based dividend through 2027 is removed while the EUR 1 floor is maintained. Shares appear fairly valued.

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