Remy Cointreau: Worsening Environment Pushes Out Sales Recovery Expectations

Narrow-moat Remy Cointreau reported its sales update for first-half fiscal 2025, which was below our expectations. Headwinds persisted across territories, including inventory destocking in the US along with unfavorable consumer trends in the Asia-Pacific. Following this, management adjusted its fiscal 2025 outlook and no longer expects a recovery in sales over the year. Despite the slowdown, we continue to hold our thesis that Remy has an attractive runway for growth as key markets undergo premiumization. The firm reiterated its 2030 targets, and in line with this, our long-term estimates remain unchanged. We maintain our EUR 119 fair value estimate, which assumes a recovery over fiscal 2026 followed by mid-single-digit growth in fiscal 2027 and beyond.