Heineken NV

HEIA: XAMS (NLD)
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Heineken: Growth Is Encouraging Amid a Challenging Environment; 2024 Outlook Maintained

We maintain our EUR 100 fair value estimate for narrow-moat Heineken after the firm reported its third-quarter trading update, which was in line with our expectations. Management reiterated its 2024 organic profit growth outlook of 4%-8%, which is broadly in line with our estimates. Despite an unfavorable macroeconomic environment, we continue to maintain our view that the firm is well positioned to capitalize on long-term secular drivers in the brewing industry, including premiumization at scale, portfolio proliferation, and nonalcoholic beverages. Shares were up after the update was released, leaving the stock in 4-star territory.

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