China’s Slowing Economy Remains a Key Headwind for Shanghai Office and Retail Assets

We maintain the fair value estimates of Swire Properties, CapitaLand Investment, Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust, or MPACT, and Link REIT after visiting their office and retail assets in Shanghai. We think China’s slowing economic growth remains a key headwind for consumer spending and business expansion. For retail malls, we note that vacancy rates for Shanghai downtown retail districts remain healthy at 5.4% as of third-quarter 2024, according to Cushman & Wakefield. This should provide some support for market rents that are being weighed down by weak retail sales performance and supply of new retail malls, albeit in the secondary retail areas. On the other hand, office rents remain soft in Shanghai given the elevated central business district vacancy rate of 16.6% as of third-quarter 2024, according to Cushman & Wakefield. While the Chinese government is looking to revive its economy with a series of policy stimulus efforts, we think that business owners and consumers may still exercise caution until they are convinced of a durable economic recovery. For landlords and REITs with mainland China exposure, our preferred pick is Swire Properties that is trading at a 29% discount to our fair value. Swire Properties remains steadfast in its long-term plan to invest in China, allocating half its HKD 100 billion investment plan to China. We expect these projects to start contributing from 2026, with the bulk of it coming from 2027.