Origin Energy Ltd

ORG: XASX (AUS)

Morningstar Rating for Stocks	Fair Value	Economic Moat	Capital Allocation
	A$8.00	Szv	Fkphjwsdc

Origin Energy: Profit Rebound on Track

Adrian Atkins

Apr 30, 2024

Origin Energy is tracking in line with our forecast for a strong rebound in earnings in fiscal 2024, mainly driven by the utility business. We leave our fiscal 2024 forecasts largely unchanged, but recent strength in electricity futures prices and oil prices has led us to lift expectations for fiscal 2025 proportional EBITDA by 10%. Longer-term forecasts are largely unchanged, and we maintain our AUD 9 per share fair value estimate. At current prices, the no-moat firm is fairly valued.

Free Trial of Morningstar Investor

Get our analysts’ objective, in-depth, and continuous investment coverage of ORG so you can make buy / sell decisions free of market noise.

Start Free Trial

Transparency is our policy. Learn how it impacts everything we do

Transparency is how we protect the integrity of our work and keep empowering investors to achieve their goals and dreams. And we have unwavering standards for how we keep that integrity intact, from our research and data to our policies on content and your personal data.

We’d like to share more about how we work and what drives our day-to-day business.

How we make money

We sell different types of products and services to both investment professionals and individual investors. These products and services are usually sold through license agreements or subscriptions. Our investment management business generates asset-based fees, which are calculated as a percentage of assets under management. We also sell both admissions and sponsorship packages for our investment conferences and advertising on our websites and newsletters.

How we use your personal data

How we use your information depends on the product and service that you use and your relationship with us. We may use it to:

Verify your identity, personalize the content you receive, or create and administer your account.
Provide specific products and services to you, such as portfolio management or data aggregation.
Develop and improve features of our offerings.
Gear advertisements and other marketing efforts towards your interests.

To learn more about how we handle and protect your data, visit our privacy center.

How we approach editorial content

Maintaining independence and editorial freedom is essential to our mission of empowering investor success. We provide a platform for our authors to report on investments fairly, accurately, and from the investor’s point of view. We also respect individual opinions––they represent the unvarnished thinking of our people and exacting analysis of our research processes. Our authors can publish views that we may or may not agree with, but they show their work, distinguish facts from opinions, and make sure their analysis is clear and in no way misleading or deceptive.

To further protect the integrity of our editorial content, we keep a strict separation between our sales teams and authors to remove any pressure or influence on our analyses and research.

Read our editorial policy to learn more about our process.