Archer-Daniels Midland Earnings: Profit Decline in Line With Our Outlook for the Year

Archer-Daniels Midland's first-quarter earnings were consistent with our outlook for 2024. Adjusted segment operating profits were down 24% versus the prior-year quarter, largely driven by lower ag services and oilseeds results, which generate the majority of companywide profits. In 2024, we expect the ag services and oilseeds business to see lower profits due to falling crop prices as conditions moderate closer to the midcycle level following the cyclical peak in 2022 and a slight decline in 2023. Management maintained its guidance for the year for adjusted earnings per share to come in at $5.25-$6.25. We think this level is achievable, yet we forecast ADM to come in toward the bottom of the range.