Taylor Wimpey: Start to Spring Selling Season Offers Limited Signs of Improved Homebuyer Demand

We make no change to our GBX 190 per share fair value estimate or our financial estimates for no-moat Taylor Wimpey following its April 2024 trading update. Homebuyer demand in early 2024 has retraced in part from its cyclical lows of 2023. Still, a dramatic improvement in sales activity on Taylor Wimpey’s development sites has yet to come to fruition. Taylor Wimpey’s year-to-date weekly private sales rate of 0.69 home sales per active outlet is largely unchanged since the homebuilder’s previous update in late February. With little change in demand conditions in early spring, we continue to forecast 10,000 private home completions for Taylor Wimpey—at the top end of Taylor Wimpey’s unchanged volume guidance range of 9,500–10,000 homes—and EBIT of GBP 394 million in 2024.