BHP: Key Iron Ore Sales Solid, While Copper Also on Track

We retain our AUD 40.50 fair value estimate for no-moat BHP with fiscal 2024 third-quarter sales broadly in line with our expectations. Fiscal 2024 production guidance remains within previously announced ranges, except for metallurgical coal, which is again reduced, meaning unit cash costs are likely to be higher than previously guided. However, the changes are immaterial to near-term earnings, and we forecast fiscal 2024 EBITDA of about USD 29.5 billion. Our longer-term forecasts also remain largely intact.