Equifax Earnings: Mortgage Income Verification Revenue; Guidance Appears to Show Softening Trends

Today, wide-moat-rated Equifax reported first-quarter results that showed some softness. Revenue of $1.39 billion missed the FactSet consensus estimate by $10 million (1%). While the result was in line with the firm’s outlook of $1.375 billion-$1.395 billion, Equifax’s outlook had assumed mortgage credit inquiries would decline by 26% (actual result: a decline of 19%). In a negative sign, Equifax maintained its full-year 2024 outlook while increasing its expectation of mortgage credit inquiries to a decline of 11% versus a previous decline of more than 16%. While we will get more details on tomorrow’s earning call, we expect to lower our fair value estimate on Equifax’s shares between 5% and 15%.