Brilliance China Automotive: Lowering the Valuation to Reflect a Special Dividend Declaration

Brilliance declared a special dividend of HKD 1.50 per ordinary share of the company with an ex-dividend date of April 26. We maintain our financial forecast but remove the special dividend from our fair value estimate. Hence, we lower our ex-dividend fair value to HKD 3.70 from HKD 5.20. Besides the dividend announced this time, the company also paid out two special dividends related to the disposal of the 25% stake in BMW Brilliance Automotive in a total of HKD 1.92 per share last year. We estimate that Brilliance, with a third dividend payment in May, will return about 75% of the net proceeds from the BBA disposal to shareholders.