Campari Should Breathe New Life Into Courvoisier but Still Lacks Competitive Advantages

Campari has been in the right place at the right time, operating at the intersection of premiumization and mixology, two secular growth drivers that we expect to continue in the medium term. The company has executed well, and its Aperol aperitif brand has doubled its global volume share to 5% during the last decade, and performed particularly well in Europe. There is a cyclical element to Campari's success, however, and we expect the company's exposure to on-premises channels and premium categories to mean revenue will be hit harder than most consumer products manufacturers in the event of a downturn in consumer spending.