EOG Remains a Returns-Focused, Low-Cost Provider with a High-Quality Mix of Assets

After taking a fresh look and revisiting our forecast, we reduce our fair value estimate for EOG by roughly 9% to $117 from $129. Our revised FVE implies enterprise value/EBITDA multiples of 5.3 times and 5.2 times for 2024 and 2025, respectively. However, we retain our narrow moat, Exemplary capital allocation, and Medium uncertainty ratings. Our new forecast assumes slightly lower cycle times and initial rates of production in certain basins, particularly with newer vintages. That said, we're also assuming longer lateral lengths and lower near-term capital expenditures, which offset these impacts.