Wayfair Set to See Consistently Positive Adjusted Earnings as Cost Initiatives Pay Off

Wayfair plays in the fragmented home goods market in North America and Western Europe ($800 billion-plus global opportunity), offering more than 30 million products from more than 20,000 suppliers. We think its differentiation comes from its breadth of products and logistics network, which permits faster delivery with fewer touch points and less product damage than its peers. However, we believe Wayfair lacks brand strength, evidenced by its elevated advertising spending relative to peers and customer acquisition costs. Moreover, we think peers will continue to attempt faster delivery, spurring rising competition. Targeting a wide consumer base of customers aged 25-54 years with an average household income of $60,000-$175,000 means Wayfair is competing with mass-market retailers, specialty retail, and low-cost providers, making it harder to stay top of mind. This, along with no switching costs, underlies our no moat rating.