Arkema Earnings: In-Line EBITDA Delivery; Market Conditions Remain Challenging in 2024

No-moat Arkema delivered 2023 EBITDA of EUR 1.5 billion, in line with company-compiled consensus and our estimates. This represents a 29% decline from a high 2022 comparison base, driven by soft demand across most end markets and customer destocking measures. For 2024, management targets EBITDA of EUR 1.5 billion to EUR 1.7 billion—a broad range given uncertainty over the timing of demand recovery, which is expected to remain soft in the first quarter. We don’t expect to make a material change to our EUR 105 fair value estimate after incorporating these results and view shares as fairly valued at current levels.