Antero Resources Earnings: Improvements in Well Productivity Help Offset Weaker Natural Gas Prices

We are reducing our fair value estimate to $21 per share from $23 for no-moat Antero Resources, despite operational improvements, due to our lower near-term gas price forecast. For the fourth quarter, our $0.50 earnings per share forecast was higher than the reported $0.30 due to weaker-than-expected natural gas and crude oil prices. Total volumes declined 1.5% from the prior quarter to 3.4 billion cubic feet equivalent per day, as natural gas liquids declined while natural gas and crude oil production improved. A drilling rig was also retired in December. The reduction was more aggressive than our expectation for a 0.6% decline. Cash production costs were in line with our expectations.