Barrick Gold Earnings: Higher Gold Prices Offset Lower Sales Volumes and Increased Costs

No-moat Barrick Gold’s 2023 result was in line with our expectations. Despite this, we modestly lower our fair value estimate to USD 21 per share, down from USD 21.50. Barrick guided to lower 2024 gold production as well as increased unit cash costs, driven by lower output at the Nevada Gold Mines and Pueblo Viejo joint ventures with Newmont. We now forecast 2024 gold sales of 4.0 million to 4.1 million ounces, similar to 2023 but down from 4.4 million to 4.5 million previously. We also expect increased unit cash costs of about USD 1,010 per ounce, up from USD 900. We still forecast gold sales rising to around 4.6 million ounces in 2028, driven by increased production at Barrick’s joint ventures with Newmont.