Sampo Earnings: Still Pricing Ahead of Inflation and Increases Shareholder Distributions

Sampo Group has reported EUR 1.314 billion net income, or EUR 2.62 EPS, for 2023 under the new IFRS 17 reporting standard. This is slightly below the EUR 1.464 billion, or EUR 2.81 per share that we forecast, but aided by 4.4% insurance revenue growth and assisted by investments in service and digital. The board is proposing a EUR 1.8 per-share dividend to be paid to shareholders for the earnings generated over the last year. This is made up of a EUR 1.6 normal dividend and EUR 0.2 special dividend. The board is also proposing a buyback of 50 million shares that we have incorporated into our forecasts. After rolling our model into the new accounting regime and incorporating these distributions, we are raising our fair value estimate to EUR 43.50 per share. We maintain our Medium Morningstar Uncertainty Rating and narrow moat rating.