Coinbase: Increasing Our FVE to $100 as Strong Cryptocurrency Markets Drive a Recovery in Trading

We are increasing our fair value estimate for no-moat Coinbase from $80 to $100 as the company benefits from a strong recovery in cryptocurrency prices as it heads into 2024. The bulk of the increase comes from higher near- to medium-term trading revenue expectations as cryptocurrency trading volume has more than doubled from its 2023 lows. Around $5 of the positive adjustment comes from higher custody revenue projections as Coinbase also benefits directly from higher cryptocurrency prices though its asset-based custody fees.