Gap Struggles to Find Relevance, but Old Navy’s Popularity Provides Hope

We believe Gap’s family of brands lacks an intangible asset or cost advantage that would provide an economic moat. The company has experienced years of inconsistent results and has recently suffered major merchandizing and supply chain woes. Still, Gap has fair liquidity, and we view its Old Navy chain as a solid business. According to Euromonitor, it was the second-largest individual apparel brand by retail sales in the United States in 2023, and, despite ongoing issues, we view Gap’s goal of $10 billion in annual sales for Old Navy (up from about $8.3 billion in 2023) as achievable by the end of this decade. The concept, though, faces considerable competition in the discount apparel space and already has more than 1,250 North America stores, so much of its future growth is expected to come from stores in smaller, unproven markets. As we are wary of the potential of these markets, we do not view Gap’s stated goal of 2,000 Old Navy stores in North America as reasonable. Rather, we forecast it will have just over 1,400 locations in 10 years.