Pembina: 2024 Guidance Looks Realistic; No Final Investment Decision on Cedar LNG Just Yet

Pembina's 2024 guidance announcement matches our forecast, so we do not expect to change our CAD 41 or USD 29 fair value estimate or no moat rating. 2024 EBITDA is expected to be a midpoint of CAD 3.875 billion, matching our forecast. The guidance reflects modest volume growth across existing assets, lower marketing contributions due to weaker natural gas liquids pricing, and a fairly minimal increase over our 2023 EBITDA expectations of about CAD 3.8 billion. Export opportunities remain front and center for Pembina with the expected startup of the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion, plus the eventual addition of liquefied natural gas volumes from LNG Canada. Petrochemical additions are also material, with the expected construction of a new ethane plant from Dow, so these are all opportunities for Pembina to provide connections to the needed volumes.