Domino's: Investor Day Presentation Doesn't Increase Our Investment Appetite; Shares Fairly Priced

Wide-moat Domino's investor day did little to move the needle on our forecasts for the global pizza leader. The company's investments in its loyalty program, carryout ordering experience, and standardizing its tech stack across a sprawling international footprint are cogent and should allow the leading quick-service pizza restaurateur to continue to capture market share within the pizza category. That said, management's 2024-28 guidance for 7% annual systemwide sales largely aligned with our prior 6.8% forecast, and its conservative target for 1,100 or more annual net new units actually fell slightly behind our estimates, which we expect to maintain, as the firm's compelling three-year payback periods should allow it to comfortably outperform its development benchmark. On balance, as we mull over management's presentations and revised midterm guidance, we don't expect to change our $387 fair value estimate, leaving shares trading in a range we'd consider fairly priced.