OPEC+ Dynamics Look Chaotic Amid Another 896,000 bbl/d in Production Cuts

Our key takeaway from the latest OPEC meeting is that the internal member dynamics are highly divisive and chaotic. We don't anticipate this to bode well for the overall oil markets, as investors have less certainty and trust with regard to expected OPEC+ volumes delivered to the market, putting upward pressure on prices. However, even allowing for that uncertainty, we believe the production cuts of 896,000 barrels per day are likely to keep the market in a supply deficit or close to one, keeping prices in what seems to be OPEC+'s preferred band of $80-$100/bbl for the time being. However, we do expect Saudi Arabia will likely need prices to average $100/bbl over the next five years to support its more than $1 trillion investment in Saudi Vision 2030.