Enbridge: 2024 Forecast Contains No Surprises, Which Is Good News

Enbridge’s 2024 guidance update was probably more notable due to the lack of drama compared with peer TC Energy’s more high-profile struggles with Coastal GasLink recently. The lack of surprises is reflected in the firm’s guidance toward a midpoint of CAD 16.9 billion in 2024 EBITDA compared with our CAD 17.1 billion forecast. We consider our forecast realistic, as it is within the top end of Enbridge’s guidance range, which is up to CAD 17.2 billion (about 4% growth year over year) and largely reaffirms what was presented at the firm’s analyst day earlier in 2023. The dividend is also expected to be increased 3% year over year, matching our expectations. As such, we plan to leave our CAD 52 and USD 38 fair value estimates and narrow moat rating unchanged.