Mosaic Earnings: Profits Reaching Cyclical Bottom as Fertilizer Prices Stabilize

Mosaic's third-quarter results reflected lower fertilizer prices; spot prices for potash and phosphate generally bottomed out near the beginning of the quarter, before slightly rising during the quarter. We think lower fertilizer prices, which now generally sit near our long-term price forecasts, will result in farmers applying more volume this year and in 2024. Having updated our model to incorporate these results, we maintain our $40 fair value estimate. Our no-moat rating is unchanged.