Nutrien Earnings: Profits Reaching Cyclical Bottom as Fertilizer Prices Stabilize

Nutrien's third-quarter results reflected lower fertilizer prices, where spot prices for potash, nitrogen, and phosphate generally bottomed out near the beginning of the quarter, before slightly rising during the quarter. We think lower fertilizer prices, which now generally sit near our long-term price forecasts, will result in farmers applying more volumes this year and in 2024. Having updated our model to incorporate Nutrien's third-quarter results, we maintain our $70 per share fair value estimate. Our Canadian dollar-denominated fair value estimate rises to CAD 96 from CAD 93 due to currency movements since our last update. Our narrow-moat rating is unchanged.