MPLX Earnings: Pipeline Ownership Stakes Drive 10% Distribution Increase

MPLX’s third-quarter results were solid. We don’t expect to change our $38 fair value estimate or narrow moat rating, as earning are tracking toward our 2023 EBITDA forecast of $6.1 billion. Overall EBITDA increased 9% to $1.6 billion from last year’s levels with the largest contributor being income from its ownership stakes in midstream assets, including Whistler where MPLX owns 38%. The Whistler pipeline expansion to 2.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) from 2 bcf/d was completed at the end of the third quarter. This pipeline is transporting gas to South Texas from the Permian basin, and a pipeline extension of Whistler, the Agua Dulce Corpus Christi pipeline, is in the works to deliver 1.7 bcf/d gas to Cheniere in 2024. The partnership, like its peers, is leaning heavily into providing the needed takeaway capacity from the Permian to serve robust U.S. LNG export demand and new U.S. terminals coming online.