TransUnion Earnings: Soft September Weighs on Outlook, but We Believe Market Is Overreacting

Wide-moat TransUnion reported disappointing third-quarter results as well as a disappointing fourth-quarter outlook. Third-quarter revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS were respectively 2%, 3%, and 4% below the FactSet consensus estimates. TransUnion saw a really weak September and meaningfully took down its full-year outlook as a result. Making matters worse, it took a write-down of goodwill from its U.K. business (Callcredit) amid a challenging economy and regulatory environment there. A key debate, in our view, is if the firm is taking a big bath and thus resetting expectations, which sets up the stock favorably, or if a worsening macroeconomic environment with student loan payments resuming and interest rates spiking will result in further revenue misses. We take the former view. We expect to reduce our fair value estimate by about 10%, but we view the shares, trading at a five-year low, as cheap and offering a positive risk/reward profile.