KeyCorp Earnings: Meets Expectations; 2024 Net Interest Income Growth Important to Our Thesis

No-moat-rated KeyCorp reported results that largely met our expectations. Earnings per share of $0.29 came in ahead of FactSet consensus of $0.27 and our own estimate of $0.24, largely driven by lower-than-expected provisioning and a bounceback in capital markets-related fees. Net interest income and expenses were largely as expected. The bank maintained its full-year outlook, and we expect it to meet this guidance, although we see expenses trending toward the high end of "stable," up roughly 1% for 2023. However, the bank’s goal of keeping expenses stable in 2024 is roughly what we already had in our forecasts, so we did not see any true surprises or negative developments here.